Researcher Manuel de Jesus visited Jaume I University to give a seminar organized by the FACSA Chair of Innovation in the Integrated Water Cycle at Jaume I University, as part of its 'Seminar Thursdays' series. De Jesus belongs to the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of the University of Cantabria, which, with more than 140 researchers, is an internationally renowned center for hydraulic studies.
During the seminar, he explained the methodology they use to incorporate climate change and assess its impacts on water resource projects. This tool, which considers climate predictions and scenarios proposed by the IPCC panel, has important applications for drought management, urban planning, hydrological planning, and more.
In his presentation, De Jesus asserted that «the effects of climate change are not a 30-year scenario; their impact is already noticeable. And their evolution, although slow, is already being felt in many systems.” The models to be analyzed with this methodology can range from very specific systems, such as a hydrographic basin or a regional or provincial environment, to larger cases, such as studies of a country or a supranational region.
The methodology begins with a thorough understanding of the historical context over a sufficiently long period to characterize the current situation. This allows for the creation of a calibrated model capable of predicting past events, thus ensuring the accuracy of future predictions. Based on this reliable present-day model, the scenarios proposed by the IPCC panel for climate change and the impact on soil and its use are studied, with various projections being developed to analyze the effects that will occur in the specific case under investigation.
The most important climatic variables to consider in the tool are precipitation and temperature. Obtaining accurate information on these climatic variables is not straightforward, especially in large areas. Furthermore, land use plays a crucial role, and its classification and standardization is one of the phases with the greatest impact on the model, requiring a complex methodology for analyzing future land use trends. Once the model is calibrated, it is subjected to short- and long-term climate projections to analyze the effects of climate change.
Finally, Manuel de Jesus noted that “predicting water flows is important, but so is predicting sediment flows and how the latter can silt up certain areas or erode others. This can give us clues about possible actions to take in response to the effects of climate change, such as reforestation, dredging reservoirs or rivers, etc.”.
This seminar is part of the training activities organized by the FACSA Chair of Innovation in the Integrated Water Cycle of the UJI.
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